Wednesday, May 21, 2008
PokerStars Donation on China Earthquake
As we all know, Sichuan, a province in China has suffered horrible earthquake on May 12th. PokerStars has created a kind event on donation. We donate one dollar, PokerStars would also donate one dollar.
I post one thread on 2+2: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=208195
It seems that it works well. Lots of guys would donate.
I post one thread on 2+2: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=208195
It seems that it works well. Lots of guys would donate.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Some thoughts on ICM(poker, sng)
Those guys who know ICM, and the principles I’m discussing here, well will find this very yawnsome. Those who don’t might like it and they might find it useful to see figures. I am trying to make some of the posts I wish I had been able to find six months or a year ago. They may exist but if they do, I haven't found them.
These are two common setups on the bubble. You have 3000 chips. In one example the chips are reasonably evenly shared out; in another there is a shorty and a bigstack. Compare these tables, which show stack size and equity (share of the prizepool):
3000 0.251
3000 0.251
1500 0.147
6000 0.351
3000 0.232
3000 0.232
3500 0.257
4000 0.278
You can see straight away that you have more equity when there is a shortstack. This is a feature of ICM that it’s important to grasp: even though you have the same number of chips, you have more equity if someone else is short. And you'll notice that it's quite a decent chunk: 1.9% in this example. The shorter he is, the better. If he has 500 chips and the bigstack has 7000, your share is .278, even though you still have the same share of the total chips: .222
And note that the chipleader having a bigger stack is only partly what affects your equity (so long as the chips he is gaining are not yours, obv.). Give the 1000 chips to the other stack and your equity is .274.
Well, it’s because he will blind out quicker, right? Not really. Here’s something that may not be obvious (or at least its implications might not be): the blinds don’t matter. You have the same equity no matter what the blinds are in ICM. Some people think this makes it a poor model when blinds get higher, because it doesn’t account for what the blinds eating your stack does to your equity. But that’s not a problem with the model as such; it’s just something you have to understand and account for.
ICM is static. It measures your equity right now. This is something you’re well advised to bear in mind when using SNG Wizard to work out whether shoves are +EV. If blinds are reasonably low (say t200), your change in equity after eating the blinds will rarely be huge. Let’s say the bigstack stole both your blinds in these scenarios. Your equity will drop to .238 with the shortstack, and .217 with the more even distribution. That’s not too bad. If the blinds are higher, it starts to be painful quite quickly.
So let’s say that you play a hand with the second stack, and you take 1200 chips from him. Here are the new equity tables:
4200 0.305
1800 0.184
1500 0.157
6000 0.355
4200 0.292
1800 0.16
3500 0.264
4000 0.284
Two things strike me here. One is that you do not gain all the equity the second stack loses. In the first example, he loses .67 and you gain .54. The other two stacks gain the rest. (We all understand that this happens with allins, but it’s true too of any gain or loss of chips. Look at the figures closely. The chips you gained in the first example were only worth .54/.67 = ~80% of the chips he lost. It’s an easy mental jump to imagine that you are either player and could have won or lost the 1200 chips. It’s not so easy to realise that if you play pots in this scenario, you must adjust pot odds at all points so that you will gain enough more chips to offset their lower value. It's no good taking even-money bets. Imagine that you wagered on red at roulette. There's no 0 or 00 but you bet in American dollars and are paid in Australian dollars. You are not liking that bet if the Australian dollar is buying US80c.) But the other stacks don’t share it equally. The shortstack takes nearly .1 and the big stack about .04. In the second, the second stack actually loses more equity, and you gain a little bit more. The other two share the residue more evenly.
What does that tell you? Well, it tells me three things. First, other people playing pots makes me money. Yes, that’s right. I gain if anyone else plays a pot and I don’t. (Not just when they put it all in, but any time I’m not in a pot.) That should make folding marginal hands feel that little bit better. Also, think it through: if folding makes you money if others are playing, then when you consider what you risk by entering a pot, you must add the equity you would gain if you simply folded and let others play. Second, shorties gain more when they avoid playing pots than other stacks do. Sometimes it’s frustrating when you are at, say t150, with a 1000-chip stack, and the table is really active, so that you can’t steal the blinds. But you can console yourself that you’re still making money, and what’s more, you’re making more than others who have also had to fold. And third, when stacks are reasonably even, you lose more equity when you lose. I guess that means you should be more apt to play with a medium stack when there's a shorty than you are when there isn't.
These effects are on the whole fairly small, except the disparity between equity won and equity lost. That's huge, and the bigger the percentage of your stack you are risking, the worse it gets. Look at this last table. This is the equity situation if you take 2000 chips from the second stack with the shorty in:
5000 0.337
1000 0.123
1500 0.179
6000 0.361
You gain .086 in equity. He loses .128. Your gain is worth only 67% of his loss. Meanwhile, when you make that bet on the flop, the shortstack laughs his nuts off. You just made him money, whether you win the pot or lose it. He gained 3% of the prizepool, more than $4 in a 16, because he folded and you played a big pot.
These are two common setups on the bubble. You have 3000 chips. In one example the chips are reasonably evenly shared out; in another there is a shorty and a bigstack. Compare these tables, which show stack size and equity (share of the prizepool):
3000 0.251
3000 0.251
1500 0.147
6000 0.351
3000 0.232
3000 0.232
3500 0.257
4000 0.278
You can see straight away that you have more equity when there is a shortstack. This is a feature of ICM that it’s important to grasp: even though you have the same number of chips, you have more equity if someone else is short. And you'll notice that it's quite a decent chunk: 1.9% in this example. The shorter he is, the better. If he has 500 chips and the bigstack has 7000, your share is .278, even though you still have the same share of the total chips: .222
And note that the chipleader having a bigger stack is only partly what affects your equity (so long as the chips he is gaining are not yours, obv.). Give the 1000 chips to the other stack and your equity is .274.
Well, it’s because he will blind out quicker, right? Not really. Here’s something that may not be obvious (or at least its implications might not be): the blinds don’t matter. You have the same equity no matter what the blinds are in ICM. Some people think this makes it a poor model when blinds get higher, because it doesn’t account for what the blinds eating your stack does to your equity. But that’s not a problem with the model as such; it’s just something you have to understand and account for.
ICM is static. It measures your equity right now. This is something you’re well advised to bear in mind when using SNG Wizard to work out whether shoves are +EV. If blinds are reasonably low (say t200), your change in equity after eating the blinds will rarely be huge. Let’s say the bigstack stole both your blinds in these scenarios. Your equity will drop to .238 with the shortstack, and .217 with the more even distribution. That’s not too bad. If the blinds are higher, it starts to be painful quite quickly.
So let’s say that you play a hand with the second stack, and you take 1200 chips from him. Here are the new equity tables:
4200 0.305
1800 0.184
1500 0.157
6000 0.355
4200 0.292
1800 0.16
3500 0.264
4000 0.284
Two things strike me here. One is that you do not gain all the equity the second stack loses. In the first example, he loses .67 and you gain .54. The other two stacks gain the rest. (We all understand that this happens with allins, but it’s true too of any gain or loss of chips. Look at the figures closely. The chips you gained in the first example were only worth .54/.67 = ~80% of the chips he lost. It’s an easy mental jump to imagine that you are either player and could have won or lost the 1200 chips. It’s not so easy to realise that if you play pots in this scenario, you must adjust pot odds at all points so that you will gain enough more chips to offset their lower value. It's no good taking even-money bets. Imagine that you wagered on red at roulette. There's no 0 or 00 but you bet in American dollars and are paid in Australian dollars. You are not liking that bet if the Australian dollar is buying US80c.) But the other stacks don’t share it equally. The shortstack takes nearly .1 and the big stack about .04. In the second, the second stack actually loses more equity, and you gain a little bit more. The other two share the residue more evenly.
What does that tell you? Well, it tells me three things. First, other people playing pots makes me money. Yes, that’s right. I gain if anyone else plays a pot and I don’t. (Not just when they put it all in, but any time I’m not in a pot.) That should make folding marginal hands feel that little bit better. Also, think it through: if folding makes you money if others are playing, then when you consider what you risk by entering a pot, you must add the equity you would gain if you simply folded and let others play. Second, shorties gain more when they avoid playing pots than other stacks do. Sometimes it’s frustrating when you are at, say t150, with a 1000-chip stack, and the table is really active, so that you can’t steal the blinds. But you can console yourself that you’re still making money, and what’s more, you’re making more than others who have also had to fold. And third, when stacks are reasonably even, you lose more equity when you lose. I guess that means you should be more apt to play with a medium stack when there's a shorty than you are when there isn't.
These effects are on the whole fairly small, except the disparity between equity won and equity lost. That's huge, and the bigger the percentage of your stack you are risking, the worse it gets. Look at this last table. This is the equity situation if you take 2000 chips from the second stack with the shorty in:
5000 0.337
1000 0.123
1500 0.179
6000 0.361
You gain .086 in equity. He loses .128. Your gain is worth only 67% of his loss. Meanwhile, when you make that bet on the flop, the shortstack laughs his nuts off. You just made him money, whether you win the pot or lose it. He gained 3% of the prizepool, more than $4 in a 16, because he folded and you played a big pot.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Common Beginner Pitfalls To Avoid
After a few months of playing online poker for real money I thought it would be appropriate to summerize a few of the common mistakes that I learnt through losing my money, and I saw my friends make and I commonly see on this site.
Nothing I say here is any new and amazing stuff, and it is stuff that you will see in most Poker Books and in this site, but I still think it is valueble for new beginners to avoid those pitfalls.
My experience is mainly in Sng's and is aimed for Sng players.
OK, enough introductions:
1. AJ, AT, KJ - Most beginners tend to overvalue those hands. In late stages in Sngs they are gold but in early stages (7-9 players) they are very dangerous hands. It is exactly the kind of hands that you either win small pots or lose big ones. In early stages I fold those hands to any agression preflop, limp from MP, maybe raise from LP, depending on the table structure.
2. Suited connectors are for flushes or str8s - I believe that limping with suited connectors is a profitable move in Sngs - assuming you remember why you play them!
You want to make a str8 or a flush, not Top pair. Way too often you will limp with T9 to have a flop of T,7,2 rainbow - your hand is not good. You may be able to win the pot, but you have a very mediocare hand, be willing to drop it.
3. KK - This is a great hand ofcourse, but by no means it is a guarenteed winner. When an A comes on the Flop you have to be very careful. If you raised nicely preflop and you had 1 or 2 callers there is a very good chance they are holding the A. If it is checked to you and you are last or one before last to bet throw in a continuation bet, but be willing to fold to a reraise.
4. JJ, TT - my least favorite hands of all time - Early in the tournament I am not willing to invest too much money in them, maybe 10% of my stack. From EP I will play them as I would low pair (see the flop cheap, if you didnt hit a set or a low flop when you have overpair fold to agression).
5. Once you put chips in the pot they are not yours anyomre - Dont feel compelled to chase the hand just because you invested money in the pot. Sngs are not about any one specific hand - its about making it to the money.
6. Slowplay monsters only at early stages - And by monster I mean a boat, a nut flush or a set on a very uncoordinated board. Dont slowplay two pairs in the early stages, you will get burned more often then you can believe. If you have JThearts and the flop comes 2 7 9 hearts dont let the Q, K, A hearts get a card for cheap. Make them pay to chase.
7. People can get a few good hands in a row - It is not uncommon to get 3,4 or even 5 good starting hands in a row. Just because someone raised 3 consecutive times preflop does not mean that he is a bluffing maniac, he could be, but he is not neccessarily is. When he raise 7 out of the first 10 hands you can assume he is a maniac.
8. Dont minbet at early stages- It accomplishes nothing - You will not scare anybody with a minbet when the minbet is 1/50 of their stack. If you think you should bet do it agressively.
9. pot odds are less important then stack size - In ring games pot odds is king. In Sng your stack size matters much more. It is way too easy too blead half your stack on chasing hands that you had pot odds to call ,and then have a short stack and having the entire table picking on you trying to knock you out.
10. He is bluffing syndrom - Everybody I know had this syndrom at one point or another - You are sure everybody is bluffing all the time - so you reraise somebody with your TPLK only to discover - surprise,surprise they have you outkicked. You need good reads to find out that people are bluffing.
11. Good players change pace - the ABC of Sng is to play tight in the beginning and agressively towards the end - dont be surprised when people do it. Just because somebody playing only 2 hands in the first three orbits does not mean that they will be tight forever.
12. Dont limp when you are short stacked - When you are the short stacked (5BB or less) you can't limp into hands - pick your spot and try to double up.
13. Think about the entire hand - When you bet/raise/call think about the entire hand - remember what you opponent did at every stage and try to anticipate what he will do next. A poker hand is not a series of indpendant decisions, its a series of connected decisions each affecting the other.
14. Notice the tight players too - It is way to easy to overlook the tight players at the table and focus on the loose/agressive ones. Pay attention to those who fold 80% of the hands, they probably know what they are doing
Nothing I say here is any new and amazing stuff, and it is stuff that you will see in most Poker Books and in this site, but I still think it is valueble for new beginners to avoid those pitfalls.
My experience is mainly in Sng's and is aimed for Sng players.
OK, enough introductions:
1. AJ, AT, KJ - Most beginners tend to overvalue those hands. In late stages in Sngs they are gold but in early stages (7-9 players) they are very dangerous hands. It is exactly the kind of hands that you either win small pots or lose big ones. In early stages I fold those hands to any agression preflop, limp from MP, maybe raise from LP, depending on the table structure.
2. Suited connectors are for flushes or str8s - I believe that limping with suited connectors is a profitable move in Sngs - assuming you remember why you play them!
You want to make a str8 or a flush, not Top pair. Way too often you will limp with T9 to have a flop of T,7,2 rainbow - your hand is not good. You may be able to win the pot, but you have a very mediocare hand, be willing to drop it.
3. KK - This is a great hand ofcourse, but by no means it is a guarenteed winner. When an A comes on the Flop you have to be very careful. If you raised nicely preflop and you had 1 or 2 callers there is a very good chance they are holding the A. If it is checked to you and you are last or one before last to bet throw in a continuation bet, but be willing to fold to a reraise.
4. JJ, TT - my least favorite hands of all time - Early in the tournament I am not willing to invest too much money in them, maybe 10% of my stack. From EP I will play them as I would low pair (see the flop cheap, if you didnt hit a set or a low flop when you have overpair fold to agression).
5. Once you put chips in the pot they are not yours anyomre - Dont feel compelled to chase the hand just because you invested money in the pot. Sngs are not about any one specific hand - its about making it to the money.
6. Slowplay monsters only at early stages - And by monster I mean a boat, a nut flush or a set on a very uncoordinated board. Dont slowplay two pairs in the early stages, you will get burned more often then you can believe. If you have JThearts and the flop comes 2 7 9 hearts dont let the Q, K, A hearts get a card for cheap. Make them pay to chase.
7. People can get a few good hands in a row - It is not uncommon to get 3,4 or even 5 good starting hands in a row. Just because someone raised 3 consecutive times preflop does not mean that he is a bluffing maniac, he could be, but he is not neccessarily is. When he raise 7 out of the first 10 hands you can assume he is a maniac.
8. Dont minbet at early stages- It accomplishes nothing - You will not scare anybody with a minbet when the minbet is 1/50 of their stack. If you think you should bet do it agressively.
9. pot odds are less important then stack size - In ring games pot odds is king. In Sng your stack size matters much more. It is way too easy too blead half your stack on chasing hands that you had pot odds to call ,and then have a short stack and having the entire table picking on you trying to knock you out.
10. He is bluffing syndrom - Everybody I know had this syndrom at one point or another - You are sure everybody is bluffing all the time - so you reraise somebody with your TPLK only to discover - surprise,surprise they have you outkicked. You need good reads to find out that people are bluffing.
11. Good players change pace - the ABC of Sng is to play tight in the beginning and agressively towards the end - dont be surprised when people do it. Just because somebody playing only 2 hands in the first three orbits does not mean that they will be tight forever.
12. Dont limp when you are short stacked - When you are the short stacked (5BB or less) you can't limp into hands - pick your spot and try to double up.
13. Think about the entire hand - When you bet/raise/call think about the entire hand - remember what you opponent did at every stage and try to anticipate what he will do next. A poker hand is not a series of indpendant decisions, its a series of connected decisions each affecting the other.
14. Notice the tight players too - It is way to easy to overlook the tight players at the table and focus on the loose/agressive ones. Pay attention to those who fold 80% of the hands, they probably know what they are doing
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